Gold price in 2026: forecasts and analysis
Geopolitical factors, monetary policy and trends that will influence the gold price this year.
The gold price in 2026 is influenced by central bank monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and massive purchases by emerging market central banks (China, India, Turkey).
Bullish factors: Progressive de-dollarization, record budget deficits in the US and Europe, and strong Asian physical demand structurally support the price. Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024 — a historic record.
Bearish factors: Prolonged monetary tightening (high real rates), a strong dollar, or resolution of geopolitical tensions could slow the rally. Gold pays no dividends — its opportunity cost rises with rates.
Analyst consensus: Goldman Sachs, UBS and the Swiss National Bank anticipate a price between 2,800 and 3,200 USD/oz for 2026. In CHF, this corresponds to approximately CHF 80–95 per gram depending on the exchange rate.
Strategy for the Swiss investor: Rather than trying to time the market, a DCA (regular purchase) approach over 12 months smooths entry risk.